A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
