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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.