Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
