🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.